Heads up: Penny goes for 12th win as Dodgers take on Mets

Baseball Betting Lines

07/21/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brad Penny will try for his 12th win of the season this afternoon when the Los Angeles Dodgers continue their four-game series with the New York Mets at Dodger Stadium.

Penny has been outstanding so far this year, posting an 11-1 mark, and is tied with Oakland's Dan Haren for the third best earned run average in the majors at 2.33.

The right-hander is 6-0 over 10 starts since his lone loss of the season on May 18 against the Angels. He has allowed one run or fewer in eight of those outings, including Monday against the Phillies in which Penny posted a win behind seven frames of four-hit, one-run ball with eight strikeouts.

It was a good sign for Penny, who was hammered for six runs in four innings of a no-decision on July 5 against Atlanta.

Penny, who is just 4-10 with a 5.82 ERA in 17 career starts against New York, is trying to avoid a second-half letdown that ruined his season last year. He went 10-2 before the All-Star break in 2006, but went just 6-7 in the second half with a 6.25 ERA.

Jorge Sosa will start this afternoon for the Mets coming off a tough-luck loss at San Diego. Against the Padres on Monday, Sosa allowed only two runs on five hits over six innings, but got little run support in New York's 5-1 loss. The defeat dropped Sosa to 7-4 on the year with a 3.84 ERA.

The right-hander, who is 1-3 over his last five outings, has made six lifetime appearances against the Dodgers, with two of those being starts. In that span, he is 0-1 with a 5.63 ERA after allowing 10 runs over 16 total innings. Sosa started against the Dodgers on June 13 and took the loss after yielding six runs over 5 2/3 frames.

Sosa will try to secure a series win for the Mets, who captured the second game of this set on Friday, 4-1, after outslugging the Dodgers 13-9 on Thursday.

Carlos Beltran homered for the second straight game and David Wright had an RBI for the Mets, who have won five of seven and have stretched their lead over the Braves to 3 1/2 games for the top spot in the National League East.

Oliver Perez (9-6) threw 7 1/3 strong innings, allowing six hits and a run with eight strikeouts. Billy Wagner threw the final inning for his 21st save.

New York, though, lost the reliable Jose Valentin, as the second baseman fractured his right tibia after fouling a ball off his leg in the fourth innings.

Nomar Garciaparra homered for the Dodgers, just his third long ball of the season, while Juan Pierre extended his hitting streak to 13 games with a single in the first inning. He also stole his 40th base of the season.

Brett Tomko gave up five hits and an unearned run over six innings in the start. Roberto Hernandez (0-1) allowed two hits and three runs -- two earned -- in the eighth inning, as the Dodgers lost for the third time in four games and still trail the first-place Padres by just a percentage point in the NL West.

The Dodgers swept a three-game series against New York this season from June 11-13 at Chavez Ravine. The Mets went 4-3 against LA in the 2006 series and swept Los Angeles in three games during last October's NL playoffs.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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